Happy New Year! Next year I’ll be wishing you happy second quarter (of the century). Will we make it to see the start of the third quarter? Dunno, the future is unknown to the present. Although, according to Gemini, the latest research indicates that moderate coffee consumption is associated with longer life, via a reduction in the risk of cardiovascular disease. Unfortunately, high coffee consumption is associated with increased risk. So what’s an espresso lover to do?
If someone were to guarantee me I’d live one full year longer if I quit coffee today, I don’t think I’d stop. Two years longer? I dunno, maybe. Maybe in that case I’d reduce my consumption by half or something, thinking that a 50% reduction might buy me an additional year. But suppose the guarantor couldn’t tell you the precise year of your death, only that you’re certain to live one more year if you quit coffee. Then that’s a tough one. Because if I’m destined to die at 69, say (with coffee), then hell ya, I’ll stop if I’m certain to get to 70. But if I’m destined to die at 89 (with coffee), then quitting coffee now, just to become a nonagenarian twenty-five years hence, wouldn’t feel worth it to me. The opportunity to live twenty-five more years, versus twenty-four more, doesn’t seem like a rational basis for quitting something I really enjoy, every single morning. But somehow the guarantee of five more years versus four more does. I think behavioral economists call this time discounting. In any case, nobody can give me a guarantee like that, so I intend to keep on keeping on with my morning routine, til death do us part.