Folly of Prediction

Snow. We’d nearly forgotten. The weatherlady said expect 2″, maybe. Instead, 6-8″ fell. Ah, the folly of Man’s hubris, one minute we’re predicting the Higgs boson and the next we’re knee deep in unexpected snow.

Some viewed this as a setback; we accepted it as opportunity. We loaded the twelve year olds into the Subaru and up into the mountains we all went to enjoy a positively serene plod through the snow.

BIGGER.

Happy Wife broke trail:

BIGGER.

Back at the trail head we met a man visiting from Tahiti. He was holding a camera and gazing at the white mountains set against the bluebird sky. Speechless. I love that.

Despite this latest snowfall we’re well below our annual average, and north of us, closer to Fairbanks, the day-to-day temperatures this winter have been well above average, and so, like others, I think this may mean the ice on the Tanana River could break up earlier than usual, that is if you call this usual:

Source

With the possible exception of 1963, last year was the latest breakup in almost one hundred years — over 60 days after the vernal equinox (VE). There’s a celebration held every year in Alaska called the Nenana Ice Classic, which involves a contest to see who can guess the time when the tripod will fall on the Tanana River. $2.50 per guess, enter as often as you’d like. I’ve not participated in years past but this year I’m going to. The payout last year was $318,000.

You might think that a higher than average day-to-day winter temperature in Nenana would cause a breakup much earlier than “normal,” and that’s true, but low snow cover means the cold penetrates deeper into the ground which has the effect of delaying ice breakup. A multi-factorial problem for sure. There’s something about April 29th at 3:42 pm that’s speaking to me right now (39 days after VE).

Or I suppose I could ask the weatherlady when the ice will go out.